Facing some realities
By the time this periodical hits the streets, it is hoped that we will be somewhere near the peak of the Wuhan Virus curve, or, possibly, on its downward slope. Again, we can hope. The last five weeks have been unprecedented in the severity and scope of any shutdown or pandemic response the world has ever seen. Now we have to look toward putting life – and lives – back together.
The shutdown of the economy was a bold and dangerous move, and we can only speculate as to the ripple effects this will have going forward, but we must reopen the economy and allow people to get on with their lives. That means that a couple realities are going to have to be understood by the general public – and echoed by our leaders.
The first reality is that any opening of the economy is going to include the likely possibility of a spike in new cases. People coming into closer contact that might be carriers of the disease will be out in the world. This means people will get sick, some may die. But, the effect of not letting people get back to some semblance of normality will have its own dire consequences. The insecurity of getting the disease will be replaced by the insecurity of making a living. It’s not an either/or proposition.
A possible approach is to quarantine the sick in much the same way as was done a century ago: putting them in secure facilities where they can be cared for until such time as they are recovered or cured. A vaccine is said to be 18 months or more away. The fact we can test for the virus is in our favor, and will allow for the quarantining – even at home – of those with the disease.
The next reality is health professionals and think tanks that came up with the initial projections on infections and deaths have to have their methodology scrutinized. Let us remember that predictions were between 1 and 2 million deaths, and tens of millions infected. Those projections had assumptions that proved not only incorrect, but egregiously so.
Even in the tri-state area, which is the hot spot of the virus among the nation, the number of cases and the stress on the medical system have been far below what was anticipated based on those early models. Those models to date have been revised downward three times, and continue to skew high.
We must deal with how these models came about, what presumptions or assumptions were made, and what other factors were included to make sure the panic and over-reaction we’ve seen thus far does not happen again.
Finally, we must deal with the realities of how this unique situation has damaged or will damage individuals. People’s livelihoods have been ruined to the point many may never recover. This will have far-reaching impacts on future health, physically and mentally.
We as a nation and society will have effects of the last five weeks that will extend for decades. The treatment of these effects must extend beyond pay-outs and stimulus projects. The things that have given people’s lives meaning — family, profession, religion, social interaction — have been damaged along with the economy. We must be ready to help those who are going to have delayed reactions to these events.
The next stage of the Wuhan Virus saga is going to be more difficult than the disease, and those realities must be faced by an informed and ready public.